How will technology change the way Americans work and live over the next 50 years? What goods and services will we consume? Will we still pay taxes? Five faculty members of the Pamplin College of Business offer their visions of the future.
Telecommunications
Telecommuting will be widespread, says finance professor George Morgan. As associate director of Virginia Tech’s Center for Wireless Telecommunication Systems, Morgan helps companies solve problems and identify new business opportunities in the telecommunications industry. To save time, reduce air pollution, and enhance family life, many jobs, he says, will be done via high-speed “teleconferencing” using telephones that incorporate TV screens. “We will also have a personal telephone number for life, no matter where we move, at least within North America,” Morgan says.
Computers
Dan Conway, an assistant professor of management science, and a specialist in network modeling, artificial intelligence, and high-speed computing, envisages “software robots” to gather and organize information. “Instead of manually searching through various computer databases, one will just tell software programs or robots to gather all the information on a certain product or company, for example, and to create a report.”
Corporate Downsizing
On the down side, Carroll Stephens, an assistant professor of management and a specialist in corporate social performance, predicts the current trend of downsizing will continue, if not accelerate, during the next 50 years.
Businesses and other organizations may reap efficiency gains from a downsized, “boundaryless” work environment (where lines of reporting are unclear and people work in ever-changing, cross-functional teams), but the changes exact an enormous social toll in the form of unemployed or displaced workers. Dealing with this economic and social underclass, she thinks, will probably be the single most important issue the country will face in the years ahead.
“Our society has been organized around work roles and stable employment throughout history,” says Stephens. “While it is clear that massive technological changes are on the immediate horizon, we have yet to address how those changes, with their destabilizing impact on employment, will affect social organization.”
Consumer Behavior
Ruth Smith, an associate professor of marketing, says, “People will expect much more from the goods and services they buy, and consuming will become an experience in itself.”
Constant or declining economic resources combined with increasing environmental concerns, Smith says, will mean that people will demand high-quality goods that will last a long time, as well as attentive and knowledgeable sales and service staff. “And consumers will expect marketers to help them get maximum value and performance from products during the entire life of the product, not just on the day of the purchase.”
Consumption experiences, Smith says, will increasingly be sought as an end in themselves. ”On-line shopping, while efficient, will never replace the total sensory experience of the Mall of America. Shopping centers will become tourist attractions that provide entertainment far beyond movie theaters and restaurants.”
In a society that is increasingly homogeneous and saturated with material goods, consumers will rely more and more on unique experiences to differentiate themselves from others. “Designer experiences, in which a person can live out a fantasy, such as pitching an inning in the Cubs spring training camp or riding on the space shuttle, will replace luxury goods as the status symbols of the 21st century.”
Taxes
Accounting professor and taxation specialist Gene Seago predicts major changes to the federal tax system. Taxes will continue to be allocated on the basis of ability to pay, says Seago, “but substantial changes will be made to the components of the tax formula, gross income, and deductions.” The most significant changes, he thinks, will concern taxation of corporate earnings and adjustments for inflation.
The corporation will become a tax collector. “Just as employers withhold tax for their employees, the corporation will withhold and pay taxes on behalf of its shareholders.” This change will help improve the international competitiveness of U.S. businesses, he says, as it will eliminate the double tax on corporate income, which is taxed once at the corporate level as income is earned and again at the shareholder level when dividends are paid. “The reduced tax burden on corporate income will encourage investment in American companies.”
The tax system will provide adjustments for inflationary gains realized from sales of assets held for more than one year – a change that will particularly benefit investors in the stock market.
Preparing returns will be greatly simplified. “Most of the information for preparing a return will be sent to the government by employers, suppliers, banks, and other institutions.” Taxpayers will receive, probably electronically, a preliminary tax return to which they can make adjustments. “For the average person, the preliminary and final return is likely to remain the same, which will reduce the compliance burden for the majority of taxpayers.”